As with all energy transitions, the move from animal feed to oil was slow and its outcome difficult to predict at the time, yet economic forces eventually overcame all resistance to change.

Cost drives change.Throughout history, major energy transitions—from wood to coal, and later from coal to natural gas—have been primarily driven by basic economic principles, with cost being the most important factor. When a new energy source offers a better product at a cheaper price, it eventually replaces the old one, despite initial resistance or uncertainty. This is evident in the shift from expensive, less energy-dense wood to cheaper, more efficient coal during the Industrial Revolution.

Slow but inevitable.Energy transitions are often slow, taking decades or even centuries, due to factors like existing infrastructure, regulations, and the power of incumbent industries. The transition from coal to nuclear power stalled because nuclear proved too expensive, despite its potential. However, the transition to natural gas succeeded because innovations like fracking dramatically lowered its cost, making it competitive with coal for electricity generation.

Lessons learned.Past transitions highlight that while innovation can accelerate change, and policy can influence speed, the fundamental driver is economics. The cheapest, most efficient energy source tends to win in the long run. This historical pattern provides a crucial lens through which to view the current shift towards renewable energy.